TLDR: The inevitability is that the primitive engagement algorithms will be replaced by more efficient systems to achieve the end goal. Those end goals tend to be more money, more leverage, and less work to live an easier more abundant life.
Computer interaction is totally broken relative to technology that already exists.
Think about inputs vs. outputs.
Inputs
We sit behind devices, laptops, monitors, phones, etc and we punch letters and symbols into it.
We organize and collaborate on rearranging information into creative works, designs, images, books, and so forth.
Most of us do this sitting silently looking at a screen, using our fingers.
Some enterprising people build technology to make that experience easier, building workflows and applications that make the computer a greater point of leverage.
Outputs
In return we see algorithm-based recommendations, what to buy, what shows to watch, what posts to read.
We access systems, services, and tools to make our lives easier.
Much of this comes back to us in the form of emails, messages, or physical goods or services we acquire from the web.
Many times we even build relationships with real people.
But now…
Computers are moving closer and closer to being trained on human preference.
The primitives are how you organized your desktop folders, the original Facebook wall moving from latest to most relevant, your Netflix recommendations tuning over time, or your list of LinkedIn people you may know.
These technologies took into account things like preference, frequency, recency, and engagement.
TikTok took it to a new level combining the infinite scroll with deep video insights on everything from music tastes to exact moments of disinterest.
And in the case of AI models, we’re now adding in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), where humans help the algorithms to understand our preferences.
Try adding computer vision to this, to understand real human reactions like smiles, laughs, dilated pupils, and physical movements.
The list of possibilities is infinite, but that’s not what is important here.
Inevitability
The important part is what seems inevitable.
And to me, the inevitability in the tech world is driven by three things:
The scoreboard is output, GDP, growth, efficiency, money
The way to create efficiency is leverage, technology, software
Humans prefer ease and access over hard work
Taken together, my belief is that computers will serve humans, not the other way around.
The software builders of recent decades have prospered because of the value and leverage they’ve created.
Think about Facebook. The algorithm was built to create an experience that kept users engaged. Engaged users meant more ad inventory, more ad inventory and more first-party data meant more ad revenue.
Think about Google. The algorithm was built to surface the most relevant information. Relevant information kept users coming back to demonstrate intent. Intent plus data was the holy grail, which incentivized companies to invest in page rank and becoming experts at SEO and SEM, reaching customers more efficiently to generate more revenue.
Well what happens when the computers figure out the real goals?
How many people are already asking ChatGPT to start a business for them?
I’ll save you the trouble, the TikTok rabbit hole on this one is deeper than you might think. You can already set up your computer to take voice commands and automatically code apps and websites based purely on a creative brain dump, or upload primitive drawings and have them turned into working applications.
These people all want the same thing.
They want more money, using technology as the leverage point, to do less work and live an easier more abundant life.
To me, the inevitability is that the primitive engagement algorithms will be replaced by more efficient systems to achieve the end goal.
It is, as Adam Smith said, the difference between productive & unproductive labor.
Those end goals will be arrived at through not only RLHF but through ML models that tune the algorithms to our unique preferences, morals, and views on the world.
That same algorithm will ask itself questions like…
Why do we need an advertising network if the supply chain between understanding human preference and knowing where to engage them is simplified to a 1:1 interaction between computer and human rather than a one-to-many interaction between human, a computer, a series of engineers, a series of software applications, an advertiser, a creative team, and a marketing team to name a few?
or
Why do we need to type things into our computer’s UI when not only are voice commands already available, but Elon Musk is already campaigning for FDA trials of Neuralink in humans?
In this world, we need to rethink how we engage with computers, what we allow it to learn, and how we define the goals of the system.
Done well, maybe there is a world where the computer provide a life of more abundance and ease than any of us ever could have imagined.
See you Monday.
PS: My first book, Inevitable, is now available on Amazon.
About Inevitable. Founders nor career professionals have the time to read every book or listen to every podcast on operating with an entrepreneur's mindset. The goal with Inevitable was to create a powerful cliff notes style handbook, distilling advice from around the tech world on building generational companies. At the end of each chapter there is a QR code to a digital repository with the full-length works if you do choose to go deeper on any given topic.